Will materials processing drive global laser markets again in 2018?
材料加工會再次推動2018全球激光市場嗎？
In the last blog, we covered how a few of the laser segments that did great in 2017 were performing so far in 2018. One was vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers (VCSEL) which gained popularity when Apple incorporated these lasers into its Face ID system, but to date, other companies have been slow to master the technology and include them in their phones, but Apple has stayed committed to Face ID. Apple’s use of OLED screens in the iPhone X also initially drove increased demand for excimer lasers in 2017. These lasers, which Coherent produces for the annealing of OLED screens, gained a very high profile in 2017, but since then, the high cost of the OLED screens has scared off Chinese phone manufacturers, and rumor is, even Apple might be retreating from OLED screens in hopes of containing costs. (Another rumor says Apple will use OLED screens for even more new iPhones this year, so go figure.)
在上一篇文章，我們談到了一些在2017表現驚艷的部分激光在2018年目前的市場表現。一個是在被蘋果引入其Face ID系統而大受關注的垂直腔面發射激光器（VCSEL），雖然到目前為止其他公司也慢慢掌握了這項技術并將其應用到他們的手機中，但蘋果是鐵了心要發展它的Face ID。同樣，蘋果去年一開始將OLED引入iPhone X時也提升準分子激光器的需求。這些由相干公司生產，用于OLED屏幕退火的激光器在2017年也一度十分引人注目，但從那以后，OLED 屏幕高昂的成本勸退了中國的手機制造商們，而且據坊間傳聞，蘋果為了控制成本或許也將棄用OLED 屏幕。（另一個傳言稱蘋果今年將用OLED 屏幕生產更多的新款iPhone，所以這些消息看看就行了。）
A third segment that performed incredibly well in 2017 was materials processing, specifically high-powered lasers for materials processing produced by companies such as nLight, IPG, Lumentum, Wuhan Raycus, and Coherent. This segment of lasers will be the topic of what is being discussed today. For reference, in 2017, total revenue for the macro (1KW+) materials processing laser segment was $2.30 billion dollars, which was a 54% increase over 2016 laser revenue in the same segment. Keep in mind, a typical yearly increase in high-power materials processing averages about 5%-7% yearly, so 2017 was an exceptional year for this segment, but the question is, can this growth continue in 2018?
在2017年表現出色的激光市場的第三個部分是材料加工，特別是由恩耐、IPG、Lumentum、銳科激光、以及相干公司生產的用于材料加工的高功率激光器。作為參考，2017年宏觀材料加工激光器（1KW+）的總體營收是23億美元，相比2016年增長了54%。記住，高功率材料加工一般的年增長的平均水平在5% - 7%每年，因此2017的增長是不可思議的，但值得疑問的是，2018年還能保持這種增長水平嗎？
If you look at where the growth in KW+ lasers we experienced in 2017, most of it came from Asia (especially China) and Europe, with North America being relatively flat during the period. In Europe and Asia, the majority of laser gains in KW+ laser revenue can be attributed to three factors; 1) increases in laser usage due to laser tools displacing non-laser forms of manufacturing, 2) increases in large manufacturing projects requiring laser tools, and finally, 3) a fear of future laser price increases due to trade restrictions and tariffs. Which of these three factors that had the greatest influence has been the cause for debate, but without question, all played some part. Laser tools are rapidly replacing non-laser tools, a good economy is fueling many projects, and the fear of trade restrictions causing pre-emptive buying.
如果你看一下萬瓦級激光器在2017年增長的地方，會發現絕大多數增長來自亞洲（特別是中國）和歐洲，而北美只是相對增長。在歐洲和亞洲，萬瓦級激光器的營收可能得益于三個因素：1）由于非激光模式的生產被激光設備所取代，導致激光器的使用量大幅提高；2）大型制造項目的增加需要更多的激光設備；3）最后，由于擔憂因貿易限制和關稅導致的未來激光器價格上漲的購買。以上這三個的因素是否對萬瓦級激光器銷售增長影響最大一直存在爭議，但毫無疑問的是，它們都在一定程度上有著各自的影響。激光加工正在迅速地取代非激光加工，一個運行良好的經濟肯定會推動很多工業項目，并且對貿易限制的擔心會導致先發制人的購買。
Because the threat of tariffs and trade restrictions may have played a part in KW+ laser growth in 2017, let’s take a look at what has actually materialized in 2018. On June 15th, President Trump approved a 25% tariff on approximately $50 billion worth of Chinese imports including laser machine tools, optical products, and lasers other than laser diodes. In response, China has published its own list of the U.S. products it plans to place either a 15% tariff or 25% tariff on, and this list is mainly composed of fruits, meats, and types of steel tubing, but not lasers.
由于關稅的威脅和貿易限制有可能對2017年萬瓦級激光器增長產生了關鍵影響，那讓我們來看一看2018年實際出現的情況。6月15日，川普總統批準了對價值約為500億美元的中國進口商品征收25%的關稅，其中包括激光機床、光學產品以及除二極管激光器以外的激光器。作為回擊，中國政府公布了其計劃征收15%或25%關稅的美國進口產品目錄，其中主要包括了水果、肉類、數種鋼管等，但唯獨沒有激光器。
U.S. laser imports from China are generally limited to low-power laser workstations used for marking applications. U.S. laser manufacturers also make similar marking stations, but at higher prices, and some U.S. manufacturers have already exited this business because of Chinese low-priced competition. As for exports of laser from the U.S., more U.S. high-power lasers are exported to China than any other country, but it appears, at least currently, Chinese tariffs will not apply to lasers. In fact, if the Chinese were to impose tariffs on U.S. laser imports, this would likely negatively impact Chinese companies more than U.S. laser companies, because in many cases, U.S. lasers are the only models available at the highest power levels. So to summarize, at least for the time-being, it doesn’t look like tariffs between China and the U.S. are going to have much effect on laser imports or laser exports, but this could change at anytime.
美國從中國進口的激光通常僅限于用于打標應用的低功率激光工作站。美國激光制造商也生產類似的打標工作站，但是價格更高，而且因為中國同行的低價競爭，部分美國打標機制造商早已退出了市場。至于從美國出口的激光器，中國是世界上進口得最多的，但是至少照目前的情況來看，中國的關稅不會加到激光器身上。事實上，假如中國政府決定對進口美國的激光器施加關稅，這很有可能是一發“七傷拳”一一“七分傷己，三分傷人”。因為在很多情況下，美國的激光器是唯一可用于最高功率水平的激光器。所以總的來說，至少暫時，中美之間不太會在激光的關稅問題上做太多文章，然而情況也是隨時可能變化的。
Finally, taking all of the above in-mind, how are high-power laser revenues looking in 2018 compared to 2017 levels? They are growing, but at a much slower growth-rate than what we saw in 2017. This really shouldn’t be surprising, because the rate of growth we saw in 2017 was just not sustainable over longer periods. Currently high-power laser revenue growth looks to be around an annual growth-rate of 12% – 15% for 2018, certainly above average, but much below what we witnessed in 2017. However, the year is not even half over yet, so it is still quite early. After an incredible 2017, my guess is that we might see 2018 high-power laser revenues continue to slow a bit from current levels, still putting 2018 above-average overall. A few negative indicators are being displayed, but nothing to stop the jubilant times of 2017 from spilling over a bit in 2018. Overall, we expect 2018 to be a good year overall, just quite not at the growth-rates we saw in 2017.
最后，把以上的全部納入考量，對比2017年，今年高功率激光器營收會如何？增長是肯定的，但是會以一個比去年慢得多的速度增長。這真的絲毫不讓人意外，因為2017年的增長是不可能在長時間里持續的。目前高功率激光器的營收增長率似乎在2018年的年增長率12％-15％左右，肯定高于平均水平，但遠低于我們在2017年目睹的水平。然而，今年才剛過半，因此下結論還為時尚早。經過瘋狂增長的2017后，我的猜測是我們或許會看到2018高功率激光器營收繼續從目前的水平略微放緩，但仍然使2018年的總體高于平均水平。盡管當前有一些負面消息在影響著增長，但什么也不能阻止2017的歡騰時光向2018年溢出一些。總體而言，我們預計2018年將成為一個好年頭，只是2017年的增長今年怕是看不到了。
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